There's nothing particularly interesting in the log:
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00:00:11.228086 DSound: Guest source 'Line In' is using host recording device with GUID '{Default device}'
00:30:46.652027 VMMDev: vmmDevHeartbeatFlatlinedTimer: Guest seems to be unresponsive. Last heartbeat received 4 seconds ago
00:33:29.151014 Console: Machine state changed to 'Stopping'
00:33:29.151347 Console::powerDown(): A request to power off the VM has been issued (mMachineState=Stopping, InUninit=0)
After forcibly closing the guest, I restarted it with just two VCPUs just for the hell of it (host is a 4C/8T Xeon) and re-ran the rsync, which then succeeded (roughly 175GB). However, when shutting it down (cleanly, i.e. from the guest) afterwards, the shutdown, which usually takes a couple of seconds at most, was much much slower:
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26:20:24.553297 VMMDev: Guest Log: 07:55:50.970914 main Ended.
26:20:24.553358 GUI: UISession::sltAdditionsChange: GA state change event came, notifying listeners.
26:20:24.553402 GUI: UISession::sltAdditionsChange: GA state change event came, notifying listeners.
26:21:54.309488 xHCI: USB Suspended
26:21:54.311355 TM: Switching TSC mode from 'RealTscOffset' to 'VirtTscEmulated'
26:21:54.312475 ACPI: Entering S5 power state (power down)
26:21:54.312514 Changing the VM state from 'RUNNING' to 'POWERING_OFF'
I'm going to change the guest back to 4 cores and see if I can reproduce the lockup, and will revert to 5.2.8 and try that there as well if either the lockup or the slow shutdown happen again.
(note: this is similar to, but not the same as, viewtopic.php?f=3&t=87166 - that user was accessing the USB device by capturing it, rather than just mounting it).